Auto industry executives expect
electric vehicles will make up just over half of new vehicle sales in the
United States and China by 2030 and could do so without receiving government
This is according to a new survey by
accounting and consulting firm KPMG. But combustion vehicles, including
hybrids, are expected to retain a significant share of most major vehicle
markets for years to come, according to KPMG's latest annual survey of 1,000
auto industry executives.
The speed at which automakers can
phase out combustion engines and the carbon dioxide they emit is a pivotal
issue for the global auto industry. A group of automakers and countries signed
a statement earlier this month calling for phase-out of combustion vehicles
globally by 2040, and by 2035 in richer nations. But the world's two largest
automakers by sales, Volkswagen AG and Toyota Motor Corp, and three of the
world's biggest vehicle-buying nations - China, the United States and Germany -
did not sign on.
The KPMG survey of auto industry
executives found that they believe that electric vehicles will account for 52%
of sales by 2030 in the United States, China and Japan, with lower percentages
for Western Europe, Brazil and India. But behind those aggregate forecasts,
industry executives have widely varying views.
For China, some auto industry
executives expect EV sales by 2030 to be less than 20% of the market, while
others believe the world's largest market could be 80% electric by then.
Electric vehicle sales around the world have been fueled so far by government
subsidies. But 77% of the respondents to KPMG's survey said electric vehicles can
achieve mass adoption within ten years without government aid as battery costs
drop to parity with petroleum-fueled engines.